Chasing a flush on the net – Occasionally the numbers just do not add up!

There’s an age old debate in poker – really should you chase a flush? First of all we ought to define what we mean here by "chasing a flush on the web."

Chasing anything in Hold em poker will be the practice of wagering to stay in a hands in the hope which you will produce a far better hands, even although you could possibly have absolutely nothing at the time. So chasing a flush implies betting which you will acquire the card or card that you simply need to complete your flush palm about the turn or river. You can not chase a flush prior to the flop because at that time you only have 2 cards so the flush isn’t on.

So let us say you happen to be playing one of the large poker web sites on the internet, you have been dealt the Ace and 9 of spades and you have paid to see the flop.

The flop is 2s 7s King of diamonds and one of your competitors comes out betting strongly with a fair sized increase, what do you do?

First of all ask yourself what variety of hand you’re up against. The possibilities are triples, yet another flush draw, a pair of Kings or a total bluff, so as it stands you’re only succeeding against the bluff with your Ace. On the other palm in the event you hit a spade in the last two cards you’ve got the nut flush and could only lose to a full house or four of a kind.

Within the face of it you may well assume that statistically you’ve about a fifty – fifty possibility of hitting your spade, after all there’s 2 cards to come and 4 suits so there must be about a half likelihood, appropriate?


You already have 2 of the spades in your hand and there is yet another 2 showing about the table, so you know five cards and 4 of them are spades. That implies you’ve 9 spades left accessible out of the 47 cards you haven’t seen, which is only a 42 percent likelihood of catching your flush.

Should you do bet within the turn and don’t produce your flush, what do you do then? You’ve got probably now turn into pot-committed, you have put so a lot into the pot that you just may as properly wager again within the river unless there’s a huge increase or all-in against you, but now your chances of generating the flush have dropped dramatically to only twenty one per cent.

But what of that other factor, the mysterious world wide web poker syndrome? What I mean by which is although you statistically have a forty two percent possibility of creating a flush, is that what truly happens in reality? In the event you played the exact same hand in the same web based poker table 100 occasions would you acquire a flush forty two instances? From my personal understanding I doubt it. Flushes seem to come around a great deal less typically than forty two out of one hundred occasions!

That’s just my own opinion and I am certain the poker web sites would tell you a different story, except the way I see it is forty two per cent may be the very Very best you’re ever going to obtain and you might well have lots less opportunity than that of hitting your flush.

Bottom line? Chasing a flush on-line is a quite risky method that sucks you in and over commits you, with out giving you enough of a probability of pulling out the succeeding hand.